Summary:
ICF projects that approximately 445 GW of generating capacity will be added in the U.S. from now until 2030. However, this capacity will only contribute about 191 GW toward meeting peak electricity loads, according to a recent report released by the consulting firm.
Key Findings:
Regional Insights:
The U.S. currently has around 26 GW of excess generating capacity, which helps meet planning reserves. However, the supply and demand landscape varies regionally. For instance, demand in the PJM Interconnection is expected to surge by 43% by 2035, while demand in the New York Independent System Operator’s area will grow by only 14%.
ICF notes that in areas with high growth, available capacity is often insufficient for new demands. As a result, some new large-load connections are facing delays until additional infrastructure is established.
Capacity Additions:
The report indicates that generation capacity is being constructed to keep up with the growing demand. However, timing and scale are crucial. It predicts that 68 GW of new generation will come online this year, 76 GW in 2027, and around 100 GW annually over the next three years.
By 2030, ICF estimates the capacity additions will consist of:
- 177 GW of solar energy
- 120 GW of battery storage
- 77 GW of gas-fired generation
- 62 GW of onshore wind
The report also mentions that existing resources can impact the ability to meet rising demands, emphasizing that new investments in generation, transmission, and distribution are necessary, but existing resources can help manage timing risks while new infrastructure is developed.