European gas traders are anticipating that prices over the next summer will be higher than those in the upcoming winter. This is an unusual situation, primarily caused by the costly process of replenishing gas storage as Europe seeks to reduce its reliance on Russian energy.
Traditionally, natural gas prices tend to drop in summer due to lower demand, making it a good time for traders to purchase and store gas for profit during the winter months. However, this year, summer gas delivery prices are reportedly at a record premium compared to the following winter prices. This situation indicates that Europe is expected to rely heavily on its gas reserves this winter, making it challenging to restock during the summer.
Natasha Fielding, a gas pricing expert at Argus Media, stated that this unexpected price relationship has raised concerns about Europe’s ability to refill its storage in the summer of 2025. She remarked that high summer prices diminish the economic incentive to rebuild gas stocks.
In late November, prices for gas in the summer of 2025 were trading at over €4 more per megawatt hour compared to winter 2025-26 prices, marking the highest premium for this time of year.
This shift in dynamics traces back to the substantial reduction of Russian gas supplies to the EU following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In response, EU authorities implemented regulations requiring member states to fill their gas storage to 80% capacity by the beginning of November, a requirement that was raised to 90% later on. Traders believe that this rule is partly responsible for the rising summer prices.
The past couple of winters saw Europe exiting with solid gas storage levels, which eased the need for substantial summer replenishment. However, analysts predict that this winter, Europe may exit with significantly lower gas levels than in previous years, particularly if colder weather persists. Currently, gas storage in the EU is reported to be at 86% capacity, which is 10 percentage points lower than the previous year, and the rate at which reserves have been drawn down is the fastest recorded since 2016.
Traders are also preparing for a potential suspension of Russian gas supplies via Ukraine, one of the remaining pipeline routes to Western Europe, when its transit agreement expires at the end of the year. Another supply route through Turkey might also face challenges due to U.S. sanctions affecting Gazprombank, which handles much of Russia’s energy revenue.
If the trend of higher summer prices continues, EU regulators may require additional gas purchases, according to analysts from Energy Aspects. During the peak of the energy crisis in 2022, several European nations mandated local companies to buy gas at record-high prices to comply with storage rules. The elevated summer gas prices reflect traders’ speculation that governments may intervene again in the market to ensure storage levels meet requirements, even if that means incurring losses.