According to a recent report from Vitol, the world’s largest independent energy trader, global oil demand will not see a decline at least until 2040. This raises concerns about ongoing reliance on petroleum as economies continue to grow.
Vitol estimates that by the end of this decade, global oil demand will peak at almost 110 million barrels per day (b/d), before easing to around 105 million b/d by 2040. They highlighted that demand in 2040 is projected to be similar to current levels.
This forecast differs from other energy outlooks, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), which anticipates a peak demand of 105.6 million b/d by 2029, and BP, which predicts a decrease to about 91.4 million b/d by 2040.
The contrasting predictions illustrate the complexity of forecasting future oil demand, especially since the adoption of electric vehicles and other sustainable technologies remains unpredictable. Vitol’s optimistic view coincides with the election of Donald Trump as US president, who has favored boosting fossil fuel production.
While Vitol expects a decrease in the consumption of some oil products like gasoline—projected to decline by 4.5 million b/d by 2040 due to the rise in electric cars—they also forecast that increased demand for plastics produced from petrochemicals and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) will help offset these declines. In fact, oil consumption for petrochemicals is expected to rise by 6 million b/d by 2040, accounting for one-fifth of total oil consumption.
Vitol has been notably bullish about long-term oil demand, having acquired the largest single refinery in the Mediterranean last year. This strategy has paid off, with the company becoming one of the most profitable in the world, reporting net profits of $15 billion in 2022 and $13 billion in 2023 amid turbulent oil markets. The firm employs around 1,700 people, largely distributed across major trading hubs in London, Geneva, Singapore, and Houston.