In-brief analysis
October 16, 2024
In a remarkable turn of events, coal exports from the bustling Port of Baltimore experienced a notable resurgence towards the end of May 2024, as unveiled by the latest figures from the U.S. Census Bureau. This revival came on the heels of a nearly two-month hiatus, triggered by the catastrophic collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge on March 26, which had effectively halted operations at the port’s dual coal-loading terminals. Remarkably, the primary shipping channel was cleared for reopening on May 21, permitting a return to activity.
However, April’s figures painted a dismal picture: mere shipments totaling a paltry 63,658 short tons, a staggering drop from the robust 2.3 million short tons recorded in April 2023. This meager number barely registered on the export radar, yet one of the terminals ingeniously utilized barges to ferry smaller quantities to a vessel anchored in the expansive Chesapeake Bay, enabling a smidgen of export activity amid the turmoil.
May witnessed a revival, albeit a modest one, as coal loadings crept up to just shy of one million short tons—an uptick largely propelled by the reopening of the shipping lane. The momentum surged dramatically in June, catapulting coal loadings to an astronomical 2.9 million short tons—the highest in the U.S. Census Bureau’s data series that dates back to 2000—as terminals diligently worked to process their backlog of waiting vessels. Though July saw a slight dip to around 2.0 million tons, the figures still surpassed the five-year average from 2019 to 2023, signaling resilience in the face of operational interruptions.
The July phenomenon is not unprecedented; coal exports typically wane during this month as mining enterprises, railways, and port facilities engage in routine maintenance. This year, however, to offset the supply chain disruptions experienced in late spring, the coal sector dramatically ramped up its shipping efforts in July.
Our Short-Term Energy Outlook anticipates that exports from the Port of Baltimore throughout 2024 will align closely with historical trends, buoyed by expectations of sustained high export volumes in the latter half of the year. The previous year bore witness to the port achieving a five-year maximum, boasting coal exports that totaled a formidable 28 million short tons. Looking ahead, we project that total exports in 2024 will match or exceed the 20 million tons realized in both 2021 and 2022.
Principal contributors: Jonathan Church, Mark Morey